目的探讨程序性死亡受体1(PD-1)抑制剂治疗肝癌患者的临床疗效,以及美国东部肿瘤协作组体力状况(ECOG-PS)评分联合Child-Pugh分级对肿瘤超进展的预测价值。方法选择100例肝癌患者,所有患者接受PD-1抑制剂治疗。根据治疗后是否出现肿瘤超进展将患者分为超进展组(n=18)和未超进展组(n=82),分析PD-1抑制剂治疗肝癌患者的临床疗效。采用受试者工作特征曲线评价Child-Pugh分级、ECOG-PS评分对肝癌患者发生肿瘤超进展的预测价值。采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析肝癌患者发生肿瘤超进展的独立影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并进行验证。结果PD-1抑制剂治疗后肝癌患者的疾病控制率为42.00%,肿瘤超进展发生率为18.00%。未超进展组与超进展组患者的年龄、饮酒史、肝炎病史、肿瘤直径、血管侵犯情况、远处转移情况、转移部位数量、甲胎蛋白水平、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、Child-Pugh分级、ECOG-PS评分的差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Child-Pugh分级联合ECOG-PS评分预测肝癌患者发生肿瘤超进展的受试者工作特征曲线下面积、敏感度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值高于Child-Pugh分级、ECOG-PS评分单独预测(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、远处转移情况、甲胎蛋白水平、NLR、Child-Pugh分级、ECOG-PS评分是肝癌患者出现肿瘤超进展的独立影响因素(P<0.05),根据上述影响因素构建的列线图预测模型预测肝癌患者出现肿瘤超进展具有良好的区分度和校准度。结论PD-1抑制剂治疗肝癌患者的疗效显著。ECOG-PS评分联合Child-Pugh分级对肝癌患者PD-1抑制剂治疗后发生肿瘤超进展具有较好的预测价值。年龄、远处转移情况、甲胎蛋白水平、NLR、Child-Pugh分级、ECOG-PS评分是肝癌患者发生肿瘤超进展的独立影响因素,基于上述因素所构建的列线图预测模型可为临床评估肝癌患者发生肿瘤超进展提供参考。
ObjectiveTo explore the clinical efficacy of programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1) inhibitor for the treatment of patients with liver cancer, and the predictive value of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) score combined with Child-Pugh classification on tumor hyperprogression. MethodsA total of 100 patients with liver cancer were selected, and all of them were treated with PD??1 inhibitor. Patients were divided into hyperprogression group (n=18) or non-hyperprogression group (n=82) according to the presence of tumor hyperprogression after treatment, and the clinical efficacy of PD-1 inhibitor for the treatment of patients with liver cancer was analyzed. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of Child-pugh classification, ECOG-PS score on the occurrence of tumor hyperprogression in patients with liver cancer. The multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent influencing factors for the occurrence of tumor hyperprogression in patients with liver cancer, and the nomogram prediction model was constructed and validated. ResultsAfter treating with PD-1 inhibitor, the disease control rate of patients with liver cancer was 42.00%, and the incidence rate of tumor hyperprogression was 18.00%. There were statistically significant differences in age, drinking history, hepatitis history, tumor diameter, vascular invasion state, distant metastasis state, number of metastatic sites, alpha-fetoprotein level, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Child-Pugh classification, ECOG-PS score between patients of the non-hyperprogression group and the hyperprogression group (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of Child-Pugh classification combined with ECOG-PS score for predicting liver cancer patients suffering from tumor hyperprogression were higher as compared with single prediction of Child-Pugh classification or ECOG-PS score (P<0.05). The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, distant metastasis state, alpha-fetoprotein level, NLR, Child-Pugh classification, and ECOG-PS score were the independent influencing factors for liver cancer patients suffering from tumor hyperprogression (P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model constructed based on the influencing factors as above exerted favorable discrimination and calibration for predicting the occurrence of tumor hyperprogression in patients with liver cancer. ConclusionThe efficacy of PD-1 inhibitor for treating patients with liver cancer is prominent. ECOG-PS score combined with Child-Pugh classification exerts a favorable predictive value for the occurrence of tumor hyperprogression after receiving PD-1 inhibitor for treatment in patients with liver cancer. Age, distant metastasis state, alpha-fetoprotein level, NLR, Child-Pugh classification, and ECOG-PS score are independent influencing factors for the occurrence of tumor hyperprogression in patients with liver cancer. The nomogram model constructed based on aforementioned indices can provide reference for clinical evaluation of liver cancer patients suffering from tumor hyperprogression.