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论著·临床研究 | 更新时间:2024-06-18
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乳酸/白蛋白值对肝衰竭患者短期预后的预测价值——基于MIMIC⁃Ⅳ数据库的研究
Predictive value of lactate⁃to⁃albumin ratio on short⁃term prognosis in patients with liver failure: a study based on the MIMIC⁃Ⅳ database

广西医学 页码:475-485

作者机构:陈柏丞,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为中医药防治消化系统疾病。

DOI:10.11675/j.issn.0253-4304.2024.04.04

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目的 探讨乳酸/白蛋白值(LAR)对肝衰竭患者短期预后的预测价值。方法 在MIMIC⁃Ⅳ数据库中筛选在ICU治疗的842例肝衰竭患者。收集患者的人口基本信息、入院时的相关评分、合并症、入院后首次监测的生命体征和首次检测的实验室指标、治疗情况、预后情况。根据入院后28 d的死亡情况将患者分为死亡组(346例)和生存组(496例)。使用单因素和多因素COX回归模型分析肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡的影响因素。通过绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,比较LAR和其他评分对肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡的预测效能。将肝衰竭患者分为高LAR组(n=278)和低LAR组(n=564),比较两组的生存曲线。通过亚组分析评估LAR与肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡风险之间相关性的影响因素。结果 COX回归分析结果显示,LAR是肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡的独立预测因子(P<0.05)。LAR预测肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.669,与急性生理学评分Ⅲ、牛津急性疾病严重程度评分、序贯器官衰竭评估评分、简明急性生理学评分Ⅱ比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),但优于全身炎症反应综合征评分(P<0.05);各评分联合LAR后的AUC均优于未联合时的AUC(P<0.05)。高LAR组患者入院后28 d全因死亡率高于低LAR组患者(P<0.05)。亚组分析结果表明,心肌梗死合并情况和凝血酶原时间可影响LAR与肝衰竭患者入院后28 d全因死亡风险之间的关联程度(交互效应P值<0.05)。结论 LAR可以作为肝衰竭患者入院后 28 d全因死亡的独立预测指标,预测效能较为理想,且有助于提升现有评分的预测效能。

Objective To explore the predictive value of lactate⁃to⁃albumin ratio (LAR) on short⁃term prognosis in patients with liver failure. Methods A total of 842 patients with liver failure who were treated in ICU were screened from the MIMIC⁃Ⅳ database. Basic population information, relevant scores at admission, comorbidity, vital sign at first monitoring and laboratory indices at first detection after admission, treatment conditions, and prognostic status were collected. Patients were assigned to death group (346 cases) or survival group (496 cases) according to death status 28 days after admission. The univariate and multivariate COX regression model were used to analyze the influencing factors for all⁃cause mortality of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission. Through drawing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the prediction efficiency between LAR and other scores on all⁃cause mortality of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission was compared. Patients with liver failure were assigned to high LAR group (n=278) or low LAR group (n=564), and their survival curve was compared between the two groups. The influencing factors for the correlation between LAR and all⁃cause mortality risk in patients with liver failure 28 days after admission were evaluated by the subgroup analysis. Results The results of COX regression analysis revealed that LAR was the independent predictive factor for all⁃cause mortality of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission (P<0.05). Area under the curve (AUC) of LAR for predicting all⁃cause mortality of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission was 0.669, and there was no statistically significant difference in it compared with Acute Physiology Score Ⅲ, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, and Simplified Acute Physiology Score Ⅱ (P>0.05), but it was superior to systemic inflammatory response syndrome score (P<0.05); in addition, AUC of various scores combined with LAR was superior to AUC of non⁃combination (P<0.05). The all⁃cause mortality rate of patients 28 days after admission in the high LAR group was higher than that in the low LAR group (P<0.05). The results of subgroup analysis indicated that comorbidity condition of cardiac infarction and prothrombin time could affect relational degree between LAR and all⁃cause mortality risk of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission (interaction effect P value <0.05). Conclusion LAR can be regarded as the independent predictive indicator for all⁃cause mortality of patients with liver failure 28 days after admission, and its prediction efficiency is relatively ideal, which is helpful for the elevation of prediction efficiency of current scores.

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